Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular forms of NFL gambling, along with moneyline betting and spread betting. Despite being quite difficult to do well, the concept is quite simple: Over/under betting strategy means picking how many total points will be scored in a game. The number provided as a line is the combination of both teams, and you simply pick: Over? Or under?
Naturally, in practice, the strategy gets a little more complicated, so I'll explain over the course of this page.
Before I go into detail, though, I want to remind you that over/under bets are one of the most in-depth situations that you will find in NFL gambling. More than most other types, over/under wagers require that you have a complete and comprehensive vision for how you think an NFL game will play out.
We also list our top recommended NFL betting sites here, for your convenience.
Betting preview for the Jan. 3, Week 17 NFL game between the Washington and Eagles.
An over–under or over/under (O/U) bet is a wager in which a sportsbook will predict a number for a statistic in a given game (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number. One of the most popular types of wagers you can make in football is betting on totals – the over or under. You can place them at all of the top online sportsbooks: (my reviews) – Bovada – Bet Online – Bet 365 (not open to U.S. Bettors) – My Bookie – Intertops – Bookmaker; These bets are simple and quick to make, and a lot of fun. How the Over/Under Works in the NFL In sports betting, there are just a few bets that are considered to be regular bets and the over/under is one of them. The over/under is a simple wager where the bettor decides whether the final score of a specific game will be over or under a published number. Football over/unders are one of the simplest type of football bets you can make. A sportsbook takes a particular game and predicts what the total score of both teams will be. Then you, as a bettor, can now bet whether that score will be over or under the predicted numbe.
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This page does not concern researching and determining what the outcome of a game will be: For more information on that, check out my general introduction page, which describes my three-stage NFL Betting Strategy. In short, to make over/under bets, I utilize a three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks & balances and visualizing the game.
Here, I'll go beyond this general NFL betting strategy and provide the following details specific to over/under betting:
- How total score over/under bets work and how to interpret the line
- How to know when to place a wager on a total score over/under bet
- How to find good value and make money in the long run with O/U bets
Let's get started by talking about what an over/under bet is, and how the line works.
How Does a Total Score Over/Under Bet Work?
In my experience, over/under betting is one of the most common and enjoyable ways to gamble on the outcome of an NFL game. Across the nation and across the world, people tune in to NFL games – especially during the fourth quarter – to see whether their over/under bet will pay out.
A total score over/under bet is simply a wager placed on how high the combined score will be between the two teams. To explain, let's take a look at some specific examples:
These examples come from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: There were 8 games on national TV the weekend of January 7-8, and the gambling public was out in full force to stake their claim on one team or another to win, to cover the spread, or to push the total score one way or another.
These were the available total score over/under bets:
- New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
- Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
- Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can't bet on one team or the other.
The other thing that you'll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.
The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.
And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it's likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.
Let's think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.
For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team's opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game's final drive, within the two-minute warning.
Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.
With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let's now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.
When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?
For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I've assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.
While it's not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.
Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don't post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn't mean that games don't end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.
It's extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.
But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.
This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).
The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it's useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn't mean you should take what they're saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.
Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I'm getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can't possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they're probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.
Having said this, I don't want you to think that there's nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I'll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.
How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?
As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I've been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways that I've been able to pull it off it by understanding that it's not a get-rich-quick scheme. It's more like a job.
With total score over/under betting, the single most important factor involved in making money in the long-run is being smarter and more disciplined at wagering only on good value bets. This is a skill that you will get better at the more often you do it. As you place more wagers, you'll develop a feel for when there is good value to be found in a particular bet.
Don't let yourself be suckered in by touts and sharps that will try to convince you that there is some set of numbers, some statistical formula, or some software package that will do the work for you to determine whether you should bet the over or the under, and is guaranteed to make you money 100% of the time.
(Even if they advertise something more realistic – which is to say, something closer to being correct 60% of the time – I would still turn tail and run as soon as they want you to whip out a credit card and pay them five easy payments of whatever.)
In total score over/under betting, there is no substitute for visualizing the entire game in your own mind. You need to actually count up – point by point, quarter by quarter, drive by drive, possession by possession – which team is going to score how many points when and why (take a look at my general NFL Strategy page for more info on this). Do this before you even look at the line, and you'll have a baseline opinion to compare against.
Next, when you look at the line, make careful note of how different your personal decision on the total score is from the decision that odds-makers framed for the gambling public. You could be dead on (in which case, you're probably right but there probably isn't value) or you could be way off (in which case, you're either right, and there is value, or you're wrong).
Once again, there's no exact science to knowing whether or not you are right (and the odds are different) or you are wrong (and the odds were right). The most honest thing I can tell you is this: the key to a good value bet is when you feel certain of a given outcome, while the gambling public and/or the odds-maker feels differently.
For me, I've come to a pretty good understanding with myself about when I'm probably stumbling into a good value bet and when I'm probably deluding myself. This isn't something that I know factually, using statistics or logic, it's just a feeling I have through years of experience. This is precisely the type of intuition that you can develop with enough time and practice.
Trust your gut, learn from your mistakes, and you'll be well on your way to becoming a profitable NFL gambler.
Summary: NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy
Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular NFL bets. The concept is quite simple: In a total score over/under bet, you pick how many combined points will be scored in a game between the two teams. More than almost any other type of NFL betting, over/under bets require an in-depth prediction for how the game will play out, for which I employ my three-stage NFL betting strategy.
Here's an example from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105). Notice that an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. Also, notice that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.
The odds for total score over/under wagers are pretty staid: you'll often see odds of -110 on both sides of a significant proportion of the available total score bets. Most lines fall in the range of 42 to 47, with odds-makers never setting a line below 30 or above 60. However, the actual total score of games often falls below 30 or above 60, even though odds-makers don't set lines in this range.
A key strategy for understanding the line is to visualize how a game might play out to yield that total score. For example, a typical line of 42 could mean 21 points per side, 3 touchdowns per team, which means 6 total touchdowns in a game. Six touchdowns spread over a 60-minute game averages out to one touchdown every 10 minutes of game time. This helps us visualize what the line of 42 means.
Over time, you'll develop a greater feel for what the individual total score numbers mean, and you'll be able to connect these abstract numbers with a tangible intuition about how offensively intense or how defensively stolid a given game must be in order to yield the total score that you see odds-makers list. This skill takes time and practice to develop, but it's absolutely vital to turning a profit with O/U bets.
Even though there are a large number of statistically beefy betting systems available for picking total score over/under bets, the truth of the matter is that finding good value requires combining together a host of different factors – there is no magic formula. In simple terms, you are trying to find a situation in which you believe the outcome has low risk, but you also find the odds have high potential reward.
Naturally, finding good value in this way – the combination of low risk and high reward – is the goal of all gambling ventures (and all monetary investments, too). But in the case of total score over/under bets, there's simply no shortcut to doing the work of visualizing the entire course of an NFL game, counting up the points, and comparing this to the line. If the line feels off, you just might have a good value bet.
In conclusion, take the time to develop your own intuitive skill for when the total score of a game will certainly go over or under the line posted by oddsmakers. It's not easy, but I can tell you from 15+ years of NFL gambling experience that there are few more rewarding experiences to see the course of a game turn out along the narrative you envisioned. In any case, it's certainly a ton of fun.
Point Spread Betting Strategy
Prop Betting Strategy
Parlay Betting Strategy
Futures Betting Strategy
One of the most popular types of wagers you can make in football is betting on totals – the over or under.
You can place them at all of the top online sportsbooks: (my reviews)
- – Bovada
- – Bet Online
- – Bet 365 (not open to U.S. bettors)
- – My Bookie
- – Intertops
- – Bookmaker
These bets are simple and quick to make, and a lot of fun. Even better, you don't have to know much about the sport you're betting on to have a fair chance of winning.
Having said that, there's an art to making smart over/under bets. This guide provides a crash course. You'll learn how totals betting works in the NFL, how the numbers are chosen by bookmakers, and how to use the point spread along with totals to improve your odds of winning.
In short, you'll learn everything you need to know to place intelligent, informed over/under football bets at your favorite sportsbooks.
A Guide to How Football Over/Under Betting Works
You've no doubt seen how the spread, or moneyline, works in sports betting. It can seem confusing if you're just getting started. The good news about totals betting is that it's much simpler.
Here's how it works:
As its name implies, you'll be working with game totals. Oddsmakers forecast the cumulative points that'll be scored by both teams in a given game.
It's up to you to predict whether the actual number of points scored will end up over or under the forecast number.
It's easy to know whether you've won or lost. Simply compare the cumulative points scored during a game against the over/under (O/U) in light of which side you bet on.
It's sometimes possible to know whether you've won before a game even ends. For example, suppose you bet the over on a game, and the game turns into a shooting match. The teams' combined points might outstrip bookmakers' forecasted total with time remaining in the 4th quarter.
Why Over/Under NFL Betting Is So Popular
Totals betting is drop-dead easy. That alone appeals to a lot of sports bettors.
Some folks grow weary of the work involved with spread betting and are attracted to the simplicity of totals betting. Others are new to sports betting; they're drawn to over/under types of bets because it's a less complicated entry point.
Another reason over/under betting is popular in football is because you're not forced to choose a team. In fact, you couldn't care less which team wins. The only thing you're interested in is the sum of the teams' points, and whether that sum is consistent with your bet.
Yet another advantage is that bettors aren't required to know anything about the individual players to make smart wagers. They don't need to spend their nights and weekends analyzing player matchups and crunching data.
You now know why so many sports bettors love betting on the over/under in the NFL. Let's take a look at how bookmakers' choose the totals.
How NFL Sports Betting Totals Are Calculated
I mentioned above that you don't need to do a ton of research or analysis to get started with totals betting. The reason is because bookmakers do it for you. During the process of setting the O/U, they consider the following factors, from both a team and player perspective:
- history during previous meetings
- down conversions
- field goal percentages
- rushing yards
- completions and interceptions
There's a lot more to it, but that gives you an idea about the level of research that goes into choosing totals.
Like setting point spreads, bookmakers have to get the numbers right to ensure they don't lose their shirts. They have considerable skin in the game. It's in their interest to calculate totals that draw an equal number of bettors to both sides of the forecast totals.
Remember, bookmakers make their money on commissions, not game outcomes.
What Are Typical Payouts For NFL Over/Under Bets?
Straight over/under bets pay out close to even money. For example, if you wager $20 on the over for a game between the Steelers and Ravens, and their cumulative points exceed the forecast, you can expect to receive $40 less the vig. Likewise if you bet the under and the teams' cumulative points fall below the forecast.
An over/under will sometimes come with odds. These odds complicate payout scenarios.
For example, suppose bookmakers forecast a cumulative score of 41 for an upcoming Steelers vs. Ravens game. They set the O/U at 41.5 to avoid a push (you can't score a half-point in football). And based on an analysis of both teams, they set the odds at -115/+110.
Here's how the bet would be presented:
Steelers 41.5 o -115
Ravens 41.5 u +110
Because of the odds, you wouldn't make even money on this bet. You'd need to wager $115 to win $100 on the over. Meanwhile, you'd only need to wager $100 to win $110 on the under.
Totals are often adjusted when bets become lopsided. As mentioned earlier, bookmakers prefer an evenly-balanced bet so they can count on making a profit from the commissions. Sometimes, however, bookmakers leave the totals unadjusted, preferring instead to apply odds that produce the same effect (rebalance the two sides).
Forecasting NFL Totals Ain't An Exact Science
Predicting accurate over/unders in football is based on team and player history. The problem is, there's a limited number of games per season. It's not like baseball or basketball where teams play several times a week.
That's important to note because it means there's a greater degree of uncertainty in NFL totals betting. As carefully as bookmakers set and adjust their forecasts, there's often considerable variance between the cumulative points scored during games and the forecasted numbers. The limited number of games also makes it more difficult to accurately handicap the totals with odds.
This spells opportunity for the savvy over/under bettor!
Here's a quick tip you can take advantage of starting today: the most common totals for NFL games are 37, 44, 41, 43, 51, 40, and 47. Can you think of a way to use this information to improve your odds?
For example, suppose you're trying to decide between the over and under on a game with a forecast total of 37.5. While some games DO end with totals below 37, it doesn't happen very often. Cumulative game scores usually end up higher. That means you should think twice before betting the under.
How To Use The Point Spread When Betting On NFL Totals
If a point spread is listed with a total, you can often use it to gain a slight advantage.
Here's how:
- Divide the point spread by two.
- Divide the over/under by two.
- Add half the point spread and half the O/U to arrive at the favored team's projected points.
- Subtract half the point spread from half the O/U to arrive at the underdog's projected points.
- Add the results.
That'll get you very close to Vegas predictions. You can then use that number to shop totals at various sportsbooks. You may find that a particular bookmaker's forecast is off.
Let's create a hypothetical Steelers vs.Ravens game as an example, assuming the following over/under and point spread:
Steelers 41.5 o -10
Ravens 41.5 u +10
The Steelers are the favored team while the Ravens are the underdog.
- Divide the point spread by two. 10 / 2 equals 5.
- Divide the over/under by two. 41.5 / 2 equals 20.75.
- 20.75 plus 5 equals 25.75. This is the projected number of points for the Steelers.
- 20.75 minus 5 equals 15.75. This is the projected number of points for the Ravens.
- 25.75 plus 15.75 equals 41.5.
Vegas predicts 41.5 points for this hypothetical game. So, we're on target.
You'd then visit several sportsbooks to look for a total that varies from the number we calculated (41.5). For example, a sports betting site might list the Steelers vs. Ravens over/under at 39.5 (possibly in an attempt to balance out the two sides of the wager).
These were the available total score over/under bets:
- New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
- Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
- Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)
When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can't bet on one team or the other.
The other thing that you'll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.
The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.
And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it's likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.
Let's think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.
For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team's opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game's final drive, within the two-minute warning.
Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.
With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let's now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.
When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?
For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I've assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.
While it's not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.
Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don't post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn't mean that games don't end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.
It's extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.
But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.
This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).
The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it's useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn't mean you should take what they're saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.
Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I'm getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can't possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they're probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.
Having said this, I don't want you to think that there's nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I'll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.
How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?
As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I've been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways that I've been able to pull it off it by understanding that it's not a get-rich-quick scheme. It's more like a job.
With total score over/under betting, the single most important factor involved in making money in the long-run is being smarter and more disciplined at wagering only on good value bets. This is a skill that you will get better at the more often you do it. As you place more wagers, you'll develop a feel for when there is good value to be found in a particular bet.
Don't let yourself be suckered in by touts and sharps that will try to convince you that there is some set of numbers, some statistical formula, or some software package that will do the work for you to determine whether you should bet the over or the under, and is guaranteed to make you money 100% of the time.
(Even if they advertise something more realistic – which is to say, something closer to being correct 60% of the time – I would still turn tail and run as soon as they want you to whip out a credit card and pay them five easy payments of whatever.)
In total score over/under betting, there is no substitute for visualizing the entire game in your own mind. You need to actually count up – point by point, quarter by quarter, drive by drive, possession by possession – which team is going to score how many points when and why (take a look at my general NFL Strategy page for more info on this). Do this before you even look at the line, and you'll have a baseline opinion to compare against.
Next, when you look at the line, make careful note of how different your personal decision on the total score is from the decision that odds-makers framed for the gambling public. You could be dead on (in which case, you're probably right but there probably isn't value) or you could be way off (in which case, you're either right, and there is value, or you're wrong).
Once again, there's no exact science to knowing whether or not you are right (and the odds are different) or you are wrong (and the odds were right). The most honest thing I can tell you is this: the key to a good value bet is when you feel certain of a given outcome, while the gambling public and/or the odds-maker feels differently.
For me, I've come to a pretty good understanding with myself about when I'm probably stumbling into a good value bet and when I'm probably deluding myself. This isn't something that I know factually, using statistics or logic, it's just a feeling I have through years of experience. This is precisely the type of intuition that you can develop with enough time and practice.
Trust your gut, learn from your mistakes, and you'll be well on your way to becoming a profitable NFL gambler.
Summary: NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy
Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular NFL bets. The concept is quite simple: In a total score over/under bet, you pick how many combined points will be scored in a game between the two teams. More than almost any other type of NFL betting, over/under bets require an in-depth prediction for how the game will play out, for which I employ my three-stage NFL betting strategy.
Here's an example from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105). Notice that an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. Also, notice that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.
The odds for total score over/under wagers are pretty staid: you'll often see odds of -110 on both sides of a significant proportion of the available total score bets. Most lines fall in the range of 42 to 47, with odds-makers never setting a line below 30 or above 60. However, the actual total score of games often falls below 30 or above 60, even though odds-makers don't set lines in this range.
A key strategy for understanding the line is to visualize how a game might play out to yield that total score. For example, a typical line of 42 could mean 21 points per side, 3 touchdowns per team, which means 6 total touchdowns in a game. Six touchdowns spread over a 60-minute game averages out to one touchdown every 10 minutes of game time. This helps us visualize what the line of 42 means.
Over time, you'll develop a greater feel for what the individual total score numbers mean, and you'll be able to connect these abstract numbers with a tangible intuition about how offensively intense or how defensively stolid a given game must be in order to yield the total score that you see odds-makers list. This skill takes time and practice to develop, but it's absolutely vital to turning a profit with O/U bets.
Even though there are a large number of statistically beefy betting systems available for picking total score over/under bets, the truth of the matter is that finding good value requires combining together a host of different factors – there is no magic formula. In simple terms, you are trying to find a situation in which you believe the outcome has low risk, but you also find the odds have high potential reward.
Naturally, finding good value in this way – the combination of low risk and high reward – is the goal of all gambling ventures (and all monetary investments, too). But in the case of total score over/under bets, there's simply no shortcut to doing the work of visualizing the entire course of an NFL game, counting up the points, and comparing this to the line. If the line feels off, you just might have a good value bet.
In conclusion, take the time to develop your own intuitive skill for when the total score of a game will certainly go over or under the line posted by oddsmakers. It's not easy, but I can tell you from 15+ years of NFL gambling experience that there are few more rewarding experiences to see the course of a game turn out along the narrative you envisioned. In any case, it's certainly a ton of fun.
Point Spread Betting Strategy
Prop Betting Strategy
Parlay Betting Strategy
Futures Betting Strategy
One of the most popular types of wagers you can make in football is betting on totals – the over or under.
You can place them at all of the top online sportsbooks: (my reviews)
- – Bovada
- – Bet Online
- – Bet 365 (not open to U.S. bettors)
- – My Bookie
- – Intertops
- – Bookmaker
These bets are simple and quick to make, and a lot of fun. Even better, you don't have to know much about the sport you're betting on to have a fair chance of winning.
Having said that, there's an art to making smart over/under bets. This guide provides a crash course. You'll learn how totals betting works in the NFL, how the numbers are chosen by bookmakers, and how to use the point spread along with totals to improve your odds of winning.
In short, you'll learn everything you need to know to place intelligent, informed over/under football bets at your favorite sportsbooks.
A Guide to How Football Over/Under Betting Works
You've no doubt seen how the spread, or moneyline, works in sports betting. It can seem confusing if you're just getting started. The good news about totals betting is that it's much simpler.
Here's how it works:
As its name implies, you'll be working with game totals. Oddsmakers forecast the cumulative points that'll be scored by both teams in a given game.
It's up to you to predict whether the actual number of points scored will end up over or under the forecast number.
It's easy to know whether you've won or lost. Simply compare the cumulative points scored during a game against the over/under (O/U) in light of which side you bet on.
It's sometimes possible to know whether you've won before a game even ends. For example, suppose you bet the over on a game, and the game turns into a shooting match. The teams' combined points might outstrip bookmakers' forecasted total with time remaining in the 4th quarter.
Why Over/Under NFL Betting Is So Popular
Totals betting is drop-dead easy. That alone appeals to a lot of sports bettors.
Some folks grow weary of the work involved with spread betting and are attracted to the simplicity of totals betting. Others are new to sports betting; they're drawn to over/under types of bets because it's a less complicated entry point.
Another reason over/under betting is popular in football is because you're not forced to choose a team. In fact, you couldn't care less which team wins. The only thing you're interested in is the sum of the teams' points, and whether that sum is consistent with your bet.
Yet another advantage is that bettors aren't required to know anything about the individual players to make smart wagers. They don't need to spend their nights and weekends analyzing player matchups and crunching data.
You now know why so many sports bettors love betting on the over/under in the NFL. Let's take a look at how bookmakers' choose the totals.
How NFL Sports Betting Totals Are Calculated
I mentioned above that you don't need to do a ton of research or analysis to get started with totals betting. The reason is because bookmakers do it for you. During the process of setting the O/U, they consider the following factors, from both a team and player perspective:
- history during previous meetings
- down conversions
- field goal percentages
- rushing yards
- completions and interceptions
There's a lot more to it, but that gives you an idea about the level of research that goes into choosing totals.
Like setting point spreads, bookmakers have to get the numbers right to ensure they don't lose their shirts. They have considerable skin in the game. It's in their interest to calculate totals that draw an equal number of bettors to both sides of the forecast totals.
Remember, bookmakers make their money on commissions, not game outcomes.
What Are Typical Payouts For NFL Over/Under Bets?
Straight over/under bets pay out close to even money. For example, if you wager $20 on the over for a game between the Steelers and Ravens, and their cumulative points exceed the forecast, you can expect to receive $40 less the vig. Likewise if you bet the under and the teams' cumulative points fall below the forecast.
An over/under will sometimes come with odds. These odds complicate payout scenarios.
For example, suppose bookmakers forecast a cumulative score of 41 for an upcoming Steelers vs. Ravens game. They set the O/U at 41.5 to avoid a push (you can't score a half-point in football). And based on an analysis of both teams, they set the odds at -115/+110.
Here's how the bet would be presented:
Steelers 41.5 o -115
Ravens 41.5 u +110
Because of the odds, you wouldn't make even money on this bet. You'd need to wager $115 to win $100 on the over. Meanwhile, you'd only need to wager $100 to win $110 on the under.
Totals are often adjusted when bets become lopsided. As mentioned earlier, bookmakers prefer an evenly-balanced bet so they can count on making a profit from the commissions. Sometimes, however, bookmakers leave the totals unadjusted, preferring instead to apply odds that produce the same effect (rebalance the two sides).
Forecasting NFL Totals Ain't An Exact Science
Predicting accurate over/unders in football is based on team and player history. The problem is, there's a limited number of games per season. It's not like baseball or basketball where teams play several times a week.
That's important to note because it means there's a greater degree of uncertainty in NFL totals betting. As carefully as bookmakers set and adjust their forecasts, there's often considerable variance between the cumulative points scored during games and the forecasted numbers. The limited number of games also makes it more difficult to accurately handicap the totals with odds.
This spells opportunity for the savvy over/under bettor!
Here's a quick tip you can take advantage of starting today: the most common totals for NFL games are 37, 44, 41, 43, 51, 40, and 47. Can you think of a way to use this information to improve your odds?
For example, suppose you're trying to decide between the over and under on a game with a forecast total of 37.5. While some games DO end with totals below 37, it doesn't happen very often. Cumulative game scores usually end up higher. That means you should think twice before betting the under.
How To Use The Point Spread When Betting On NFL Totals
If a point spread is listed with a total, you can often use it to gain a slight advantage.
Here's how:
- Divide the point spread by two.
- Divide the over/under by two.
- Add half the point spread and half the O/U to arrive at the favored team's projected points.
- Subtract half the point spread from half the O/U to arrive at the underdog's projected points.
- Add the results.
That'll get you very close to Vegas predictions. You can then use that number to shop totals at various sportsbooks. You may find that a particular bookmaker's forecast is off.
Let's create a hypothetical Steelers vs.Ravens game as an example, assuming the following over/under and point spread:
Steelers 41.5 o -10
Ravens 41.5 u +10
The Steelers are the favored team while the Ravens are the underdog.
- Divide the point spread by two. 10 / 2 equals 5.
- Divide the over/under by two. 41.5 / 2 equals 20.75.
- 20.75 plus 5 equals 25.75. This is the projected number of points for the Steelers.
- 20.75 minus 5 equals 15.75. This is the projected number of points for the Ravens.
- 25.75 plus 15.75 equals 41.5.
Vegas predicts 41.5 points for this hypothetical game. So, we're on target.
You'd then visit several sportsbooks to look for a total that varies from the number we calculated (41.5). For example, a sports betting site might list the Steelers vs. Ravens over/under at 39.5 (possibly in an attempt to balance out the two sides of the wager).
Betting the over in this scenario is likely to improve your chances of winning.
How Overtime Affects The Over/Under
If a game goes into overtime, any points scored during OT are included in the total. That can only be good news if you bet the over. It's not so great if you bet the under.
Let's use our hypothetical Steelers/Ravens game as an example. Suppose the 4th quarter ends as follows:
Steelers – 20
Ravens – 20
Given the tie, both teams will face off in sudden death (overtime). The first team to score wins.
Let's say you had bet the under on 41.5. Overtime is bad news for you. Any points scored during sudden death will push the cumulative score (currently 40) above 41.5, costing you the wager.
But let's say you had bet the over. In that case, overtime is great news for you. Any scoring event will cause the cumulative score to exceed 41.5, guaranteeing you a payout.
Bottom line: points scored during overtime count. Keep in mind, it's not uncommon for NFL games to come within tying distance in the 4th quarter.
Over Under Football Betting System
Let's wrap things up with a few tips on making smart over/under football wagers.
5 Quick Tips For Making Winning Bets On NFL Totals
College Football Betting Lines
The following tips won't guarantee you'll win your totals bets. No one can make that promise. But they'll help you avoid making terrible bets and thereby improve your overall odds.
Shop For The Best Over/Unders
Check Vegas's Predictions
Look For Opportunities In Number Adjustments
Forget About Last Week
Get Familiar With Each Team's Style
Different sports betting sites often carry different totals. That often stems from the level of action on both sides of the bet. Remember, the totals are sometimes adjusted when the two sides fall out of balance. It pays to check several sites before deciding where to place your bet.
Most of the time, you'll find that sportsbooks follow Vegas pretty closely in setting totals. But there are times when the numbers chosen by bookmakers vary from those forecasted by Vegas.
Trust the oddsmakers in Vegas. They have a lot to lose if they make bad predictions.
Trust the oddsmakers in Vegas. They lose big when they give bad odds!
Recall from earlier that bookmakers prefer an even number of bettors on both sides of a total. But that rarely happens naturally. In most cases, the sides become lopsided as bets are placed. Bookmakers must either adjust the over/under or apply odds to re balance things.
There's opportunity in over/under adjustments. For example, if a bookmaker lowers the total to draw more people to the over side of the bet, consider taking advantage of the improved odds.
An NFL team's performance last week will have minimal influence on their performance this week. Just because the Giants scored 50 points last week doesn't mean they'll do it again tonight.
Reviewing seasonal performance is important because it indicates a trend. By contrast, last week's performance could easily be an aberration. It can't be counted upon.
Some teams are more aggressive than others. They don't merely want to win. They want to win by a huge margin. These teams usually have great passing games as they attempt to log TD after TD.
Other teams are more conservative. They want to win without taking unnecessary risks. Oftentimes, this means they forego high risk scoring opportunities for a more moderate approach.
It's worth identifying which teams and coaches use an aggressive playbook and which use a conservative playbook. A conservative approach usually means fewer points scored, which will affect your over/under bets.
If you've never taken part in NFL totals betting, here's what I recommend…
Visit a few of the top-rated sportsbooks on this list. Take a look at the over/unders for upcoming games. Choose the best ones in light of the totals predicted by Vegas oddsmakers. Then, put a little cash at risk and enjoy watching the games. It's one of the simplest and quickest ways to get started in sports betting online.
Keep On Reading
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